The Origins of the Next Generation EU. A «Hamiltonian Moment»?

Abstract

This article reassesses the Next Generation EU (NGEU) emergency economic recovery package of July 2020, which political players at the time hailed as a “Hamiltonian moment” for European integration. Drawing upon the theoretical contributions of political science and legal studies, the road to the NGEU is assessed in historical perspective. Although unprecedented in its scale and design, the NGEU arguably was less of a transformative leap than an improvised response to the extraordinary circumstances posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Set against a backdrop of plural, overlapping, and lingering crises that have been brewing since 2008, the NGEU initiative combined common debt issuance and coordinated investment with pragmatic political compromise, aimed primarily at safeguarding the single market. Germany’s pivotal but tentative shift from fiscal orthodoxy to a solidarity footing underscores its role as a “reluctant hegemon,” limiting the plan’s potential as a federalising precedent. In framing the NGEU through the lenses of exceptionality, improvisation, and hegemony, both the adaptability and fragility of EU governance under perpetual emergency are highlighted. The long-term significance of the NGEU remains uncertain, as political fragmentation and geopolitical instability continue to constrain the environment for European integration.